Ufa, Bashkortostan. Photo by Sasha India/flickr

Election Day-2021 in Bashkiria: 'Put in the target number I set'

On September 17-19, 2021, members of the Movement for the Defense of Voters' Rights 'Golos' in the Republic of Bashkortostan observed elections to the State Duma and the Ufa City Council. The observation was organized in the following cities: Ufa, Neftekamsk, Sterlitamak, and Uchaly. In addition, Golos received violation reports through the 8-800-333-33-50 hotline. Messages were published on the 'Map of Violations' website (www.kartanarusheniy.org).

Below we offer an abridged translation of the report by regional branch of the movement in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The full version may be found here: https://www.golosinfo.org/articles/145571 (Russian).

 

Preliminary findings

Preliminarily evaluating the elections to the Ufa City Council and the State Duma in the Republic of Bashkortostan, the 'Golos' Movement regretfully cannot recognize the elections as truly fair, i.e., fully compliant with the Constitution, the laws of the Russian Federation, the laws of the Republic of Bashkortostan, and international election standards.

The election results were obtained in an unfree, unequal, and non-competitive election campaign. It is also worth noting that the recorded facts of election fraud require additional inspection, including official video records. Once reviewed, we can make the final assessment.

Methodology and statistical data

Observers mainly monitored whether Precinct Election Commissions (PECs) respected electoral rights of citizens, electoral procedures, organization of voting, and vote counting.

Quantitative indicators of the elections of deputies to the State Duma of the Russian Federation in the city of Ufa are as follows:

  • Total number of polling stations: 441, of which observers covered 77 PECs;
  • The number of polling stations equipped with the automatic Ballot Processing Complexes (BPC): zero (0%);
  • The number of voters included in the voter lists at the end of voting: 800,676.

Golos conducted long-term and short-term observation during all stages of the election campaign from July to September 2021. Short-term observation (on the election days, from September 17 to September 19, 2021) was carried out in a stationary mode. Recorded data and violations were provided for verification and data processing through such services as 'SMS-HQ', 'SMS-CEC', a hotline, and the Map of Violations. 1

Violations

Numerous violations have been recorded on the days of voting, from September 17 to September 19. Below is an non-exhaustive list of violations recorded by voters, observers, and candidates:

  • Unlawful denial to provide access to a polling station: PECs No. 205, No. 211;
  • Unlawful restrictions on movement inside a polling station: PECs No. 6, No. 252, and others;
  • Illegal restrictions on taking photos and videos at a polling station: PECs No. 175, No. 252, No. 219, No. 3538, No. 3508, and others;
  • Refusal to allow to sign a safe-package2: PEC No. 252;
  • Refusal to provide data: PECs No. 252, No. 273, No. 219, and others;
  • Psychological pressure on observers, commission members: PEC No. 252;
  • Incorrect filling out of official forms (numbers of safe-packages not indicated, incorrect number of voters): PEC No. 406, and others;
  • Packing safe-packages in a safe box without filling out accompanying forms: PEC No. 6;
  • Removal of a protective (red) strip on the safe-package thus disabling the protection from tampering: PEC No. 170, and others;
  • Substitution of a safe-package: PEC No. 252;
  • Violation of vote counting procedures: PECs No. 252, No. 390, and No. 391.

At almost all polling stations where Golos' active non-governmental oversight took place, attempts to deny access to Yabloko members of commissions with a consultative vote had been recorded. The [formal] reason to deny their access to PECs was the presence of other, supposedly, Yabloko party members who had come earlier. (In fact, the party did not delegate them to these PECs). Such facts had been recorded en masse at PECs No. 252 and No. 219 on September 18 and 19. At some polling stations, valid consultative capacity authorizations issued by Yabloko were withdrawn based on fake 'requests for withdrawals' received by PECs No. 170 and No. 175.

Discrepancies between the official and actual turnout

In many polling stations, actual and official turnouts differed by several hundred voters. E.g., there was an excess of 700 voters at PEC No. 252, an excess of 850 voters at PEC No. 3538, and an excess of 900 voters at PEC No. 391. Observers recorded discrepancies between the number of people that voted according to the PEC protocol and the actual number of voters at PEC No. 141; a corresponding complaint was filed with the prosecutor's office. A safe-package filled with ballots was substituted on September 17 at PEC No. 252, which was recorded on video.

A commission member with consultative vote had their fingers slammed by a door at PEC No. 266. At PEC No. 170, observers have obtained an audio recording of the following directive to a commission member with a decisive vote: '[In the protocols] all of us shall write the target number I set. Who cares what they counted, observed: no such excuses are accepted [from you]. We are putting down the number, which I've set as your objective. If they have any questions, let them complain.' This message perfectly demonstrates the approach to conducting elections and determining their outcome at PECs in Bashkiria.

Formal complaints and the 'observer effect'

These and many other recorded violations have been documented in numerous complaints: PECs received over 50 complaints; Territorial Election Commissions (TECs) in Ufa got over 50 complaints, and several complaints were submitted to the Central Election Commission of Bashkiria. Only at a few polling stations out of 70 where Golos organized uninterrupted observation for the three days of voting; namely, at PECs No. 361 and No. 371, observers recorded no substantial violations and submitted no complaints.

Based on official election data, we have again detected the so-called 'observer effect': polling stations with active independent oversight had lower turnout, and the party of power (or its candidates) received fewer votes. The 'observer effect' manifested most vividly in the homogeneous urban areas. E.g., neighboring polling stations in Kirovsky Precinct of Ufa - see charts below where non-observed PECs are marked black and precincts where 3-days-observation (including during vote counting) took place are marked green.

Turnout in Kirovsky Precinct of Ufa, Bashkortostan. Sept 2021

Noticeably, the turnout at the polling stations where observers were present was almost two times lower, United Russia's result was two times lower, while the Communist Party of the Russian Federation's (CPRF) result, on the contrary, was two times higher.

The turnout at the polling stations where Golos' representatives were present was 6.06% lower than in Ufa in general, United Russia's result was 6.55% lower, and the CPRF result was 2.02% higher.

2021 elections results in Kirovsky District of Ufa, Bashkortostan

Administrative resource

Analyzing the elections in Ufa, Neftekamsk, and Sterlitamak, the following election interferences were recorded on September 17-19 in all cities:

  • various methods of denying access to observers and commissioners with consultative votes: a fake consultative vote authorization or a fake request for withdrawal of an actual consultative vote authorization on behalf of the party;
  • various types of pressure on observers: calls from universities threatening expulsion, calls from employers threatening loss of a job to commissioners with a consultative vote or their parents;
  • falsification methods: pressurized voting with compulsory reporting right from the polling stations, organized bussing of voters, stuffing of ballots during mass home voting, stuffing of ballots into poorly sealed safe-packages, the substitution of safe-packages, long pauses during vote counting, announcement of fake figures instead of conducting accurate vote count with the announcement of real figures, manipulating data when moving data from draft protocols into the final PEC protocols.

All this indicates that the elections in Bashkiria were conducted under strong pressure from the administrative apparatus, which interfered in the voting process and summing up the election results. At the same time, the number of volunteers willing to observe elections during the three challenging voting days increased. We attribute this, firstly, to the increased population's interest in political issues and, secondly, to a lower average age of volunteers.

Golos' observation standards and acknowledgments

In its work, Golos is guided by the internationally accepted standards of election monitoring and has been strictly adhering to political neutrality as one of the basic prerequisites for independent and unbiased election observation.

The election campaign was monitored for compliance with the free election standards and the principles of equality.

Golos draws attention to the violations of the law and the violations of the standards of free democratic elections. These standards are enshrined, for example, in the CIS Convention (see here).

Golos conduct monitoring based on the data received from the election participants and organizers, observers, and voters through various channels, including the 8-800-333-33-50 hotline, the 'Map of Violations', the media, and the Internet. Golos has also launched special information collection services: 'SMS-HQ' and 'SMS-CEC.'

 

References:

1 Golos has launched several election observation initiatives, among them publicly crowdsourced 'Map of Violations' (several reports may be found on our website), a special hotline, and data collection via SMS - REM.

2 A safe-package is a tool designed to ensure the safety and integrity of the ballots contained in it, which has an individual serial number and an indicator seal indicating an attempt to open it - REM.

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This is the third overview of reports of possible violations of electoral legislation gathered via the 'Map of Violations' by the Movement for the Defense of Voters' Rights 'Golos' between August 9 and August 15. Since the beginning of the election campaign, 452 messages from 62 regions have been published on the Map.

 

Screenshot of Golos' statement cover image

On August 18, the Ministry of Justice of Russia included the Movement 'Golos' as the first unregistered organisation into the registry of unregistered public associations performing the functions of a foreign agent. Here is the translation of their statement.

Russian regional elections in 2018. Image by Wikimedia Commons

According to the CEC data as of 9 July 2021, 4,370 elections and referenda are scheduled for 19 September 2021, including elections to the State Duma, nine gubernatorial elections (new heads will be elected in three more regions), 39 elections to regional parliaments, and 11 elections of representative bodies of regional centres. Here's an overview of legal regulations and peculiarities of these races.

Participants of Just Russia rally take off their uniforms 5 minutes after the start of the Yekaterinburg rally on May 1, 2019. Image by Wikimedia Commons

PART 4: JUST RUSSIA-PATRIOTS-FOR TRUTH

According to sociologists, the same four parties represented in the parliament now: United Russia, the Communist Party of Russian Federation (CPRF), the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), and Just Russia will probably be elected again in 2021. How are these four parties organized? What is their support base in regions?

A screenshot of a live broadcast of the voting process. Image by 'Golos' Movement.

In 2021, the Russian Central Election Commission decided to scrap open video broadcasts from the polling stations – a feature of Russian elections since 2012. The Movement in Defense of Voters' Rights 'Golos' has appealed to the President to help overturn this decision.

Map of Violations, Golos website. Screenshot - Aug. 12, 2021

This is the second overview of reports of possible violations of electoral legislation gathered via the 'Map of Violations' by the Movement for the Defense of Voters' Rights 'Golos' between August 2 and August 8.

May 1st, 2009. LDPR Rally. Photo by Photobank Moscow-Live / flickr

PART 3: LDPR

According to sociologists, the same four parties represented in the parliament now: United Russia, the Communist Party of Russian Federation (CPRF), the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), and Just Russia will probably be elected again in 2021. How are these four parties organized? What is their support base in regions?

The Rt. Hon. Sir Alan Duncan represented the UK at the 23rd OSCE Ministerial Council in Hamburg, Germany, 8-9 December 2016.
OSCE Flags. Photo by Alex Hammond / FCO. CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
#Commentary

The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights and the Parliamentary Assembly will not deploy international election observation missions to the 2021 State Duma elections due to major limitations imposed on the institutions. Announcing the decision, ODIHR Director noted that the ability "to independently determine the number of observers necessary for us to observe effectively and credibly is essential to all international observation."

Reporter's notebook. Photo by 2008 Roger H. Goun. CC BY 3.0
#Commentary

On 28 July 2021, the Central Election Commission adopted a new media accreditation procedure that restricts media access to observe and report on the electoral process. The new rules violate the freedom of media editorial policy and may significantly reduce the transparency of the election process.

Map of Violations, Golos website. Screenshot - Aug. 5, 2021

This is the first overview of reports of possible violations of electoral legislation gathered via the 'Map of Violations' by the Movement for the Defense of Voters' Rights 'Golos' between June 22 and August 1.

May 1st Demonstration of the Communist Party, 2012. Photo by Photobank Moscow-Live / flickr

PART 2: CPRF

According to sociologists, the same four parties represented in the parliament now: United Russia, the Communist Party of Russian Federation (CPRF), the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), and Just Russia will probably be elected again in 2021. How are these four parties organized? What is their support base in regions?

Ballot stuffing, elections March 18, 2018, Lyubertsy. Image - Golos
#Commentary

Less than two months before the elections, the Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) decided to scrap open video broadcasts from the polling stations, which have been the feature of Russian elections since 2012.

1st of May Demonstration in Moscow. 2010. Image - Photobank Moscow-Live / flickr

PART 1: United Russia

According to sociologists, the same four parties represented in the parliament now: United Russia, the Communist Party of Russian Federation (CPRF), the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), and Just Russia will probably be elected again in 2021. How are these four parties organized? What is their support base in regions?

Ballot box for voting on Constitutional Amendments 2020. Photo - Wikimedia Commons

Since the last State Duma elections in 2016, lawmakers have introduced 19 amendments to the election law. In the year leading up to the State Duma elections in September 2021 alone, seven significant legislative amendments have been introduced, six of them in less than four months before the start of the campaign.

TV reporter, Bryansk. Photo - pxfuel

After almost a decade of crackdowns on big players, the landscape of critical journalism in Russia is dominated by local or smaller niche projects. But if the 2020-2021 trend of relentless attacks on media, journalists, and bloggers continues, many of these small projects are not likely to survive into the autumn. The regime makes it pretty clear that it no longer intends to tolerate any dissent.

"1941- ssshhh!" - Image by James Vaughan / flickr

The laws on "foreign agent" and "undesirable organizations" continue to hamper the work of affected organizations, stigmatize and damage their reputation, and isolate the civil society from international cooperation and support. What are these provisions and how are they being applied?

Vladimir Putin Speech at State Duma plenary session 2020-03-10. Image - Wikimedia Commons

The Russian State Duma's seventh convocation is coming to the end of its five-year term. And according to a new report from iStories and Znak.com, dozens of its deputies haven't said a word in a parliamentary session since they were elected in 2016. Others haven't put forward a single bill. Be that as it may, this hasn't stopped these lawmakers from collecting high salaries and planning to put their names on the ballot for the State Duma election coming up in September.

Kaluga. A Holiday. Image - flickr

During the United Russia primaries, experts detected possible falsification of the results and instances of interference in the electronic voting process. According to some analyses, 99% of votes for the first 22 candidates on the United Russia party list were falsified while the amount of falsified votes for candidates in single-mandate constituencies reached 80-95% of the votes cast.

Arrest by the police. Image - Wikimedia Commons

According to election observers, recent amendments further limiting citizens' passive suffrage constitute a "fifth wave" of depriving Russians of their right to stand for election since the collapse of the USSR. New restrictions have a particular impact on politically active citizens.

Programming, computing and information concept. Image - Peshkova, Getty Images Pro

In May, the Russian Federation has tested a new system of remote electronic voting. The Movement in Defense of Voters' Rights "Golos" observed the testing phase, took part in the voting, and shared their conclusions and recommendations in a respective report.

"I have the right to choose!" Photo - EPDE.

Opportunities for independent citizen election observation and civil society space in general have been shrinking steadily in Russia over the past decade. Recently, further restrictions have been adopted that limit the ability of citizens to independently monitor electoral processes.

May 1st Demonstration of the Communist Party, 2012. Image by _TMY2892/flickr

Over the past 14 years, the authorities have blocked 120,000 candidates from participating in elections of various levels, depriving millions of Russian citizens of the right to choose their representatives.

A demonstration in Moscow. Image - by Andrey, Pxhere.

Russia has finally outlawed Alexey Navalny's political and anti-corruption movement. Here's how the crackdown affects activists, journalists, and ordinary supporters.

Plenary meeting of the State Duma. Image - Wikimedia Commons
#Commentary

The President of Russia approved the law prohibiting those who are "involved" in the activities of an extremist organization from running in elections.

Electoral headquarters of Alexey Navalny. Photo - Wikimedia Commons

On June 9, the Moscow City Court, based on the charges by the Moscow Prosecutor's Office, recognized the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), the Foundation for the Protection of Citizens' Rights, and the headquarters of Alexei Navalny as extremist organizations. Now, many citizens are under a threat of pressure and persecution.

Vladimir Putin at the United Russia Congress (2011-11-27). Image - Wikimedia Commons

Between May 24 and 30, United Russia held its preliminary selection of candidates for 2021 State Duma elections. Nearly 12 million citizens participated in the party's primaries. Yet, a more careful examination shows an increasingly controlled and non-transparent process, aimed at having the public formally 'endorse' a carefully vetted list of pre-selected candidates.

Meeting of Central Election Commission Chair Ella Pamfilova with OSCE / ODIHR Director Matteo Mecacci. Photo - CEC

Between 2003 and 2018, OSCE/ODIHR published 139 recommendations on how to improve the conduct of elections in Russia. In the run-up to the State Duma elections in 2021, Russia has fully implemented just over 10% of them. Some have been tackled more promptly than others.

Man using computers. Photo by: Lisa Fotios from Pexels

Ahead of the State Duma election on September 19, 2021, Russia just tested its remote electronic voting system. While the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation (CEC) is preparing the report about the results of the test, election monitors say Russia's electronic voting system is a black box.

Alexei Navalny. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

The Russian authorities are expected to orchestrate a result in the upcoming State Duma elections that will give United Russia a clear majority of seats. This does not mean, however, that the manipulation of the electoral process by the authorities is complete. In a limited number of competitive districts, true opposition candidates including candidates who are associated with Aleksei Navalny have a real chance of winning if they are allowed to run. In recent weeks, steps have been taken to block these 'undesirable' candidates from participating.

Central Election Commission (CEC) of Russian Federation during April 21, 2021, meeting. Photo by: CEC.
#Commentary

On March 19, 2021, the new composition of the Central Election Commission (CEC) of the Russian Federation was revealed. Out of 15 members, eight new people joined the CEC. In particular, the new Commission has been 'reinforced' by bureaucrats from the Presidential Administration, the State Duma, and the Civic Chamber (a consultative civil society institution closely linked to the government).